We cannot borrow our way to prosperity, a short time ago it seems as if many American consumers forgot that, in 2008, the savings rate was a negative one percent. Now for the first 4 months of this year it is up to 4.5%. That is quite a change, however it is time for Congress to get frugal concerning the federal budget. American consumers have tightened their belts and are waiting for Congress to do the same. So far 44 billion dollars of stimulus money has hit the street, the number of job losses is getting smaller, that is too quick, it cannot all be due to the stimulus. Plain and simple truth is the market reached bottom in March. Generally the economy follows by about six months, that means that the bottom will be about end of September. That is with or without the stimulus. You ask why? Well we have a 14 trillion dollar economy, 70% is consumer spending, that means consumers spend over a trillion per month, the stimulus is pumping about 10 billion per month into consumer's hands. Therefore that $10 a week you are getting as a temporary tax decrease and some 44 billion in stimulus funds is adding about 1-2% to the economy. However behind the scenes so much money has been dumped into the banking system by the Federal Reserve using fake money to buy Treasury bills, that inflation will soon take away that $10 a week and then some.\
You can artifically inflate the money supply to pump up the economy, but it has consequences. We saw that in the late 70's and early 80's. The excess of liquidity drove home and stock prices above their real values, when the bubbles finally popped, the values came down to earth, when they did Am ericans lost $12.9 trillion from July 2007 to March 2009. That is value that was not really there it was only due to excess liquidity. American's household consumer debt finally reached 100% of annual income during the 2001 recession, which was brought on by artificially inflated values of tech stocks. The last two Chairmans of the Federal Reserve have failed us miserably, Greenspan talked in 1999 months before the tech bubble burst of irrational exuberance, well that is exactly what a bubble is, however he did nothing to tighten the mo ney supply, he just let the good times roll. Almost everyone is guilty for this past bubble, not Republicans, but also Democrats, Congressmen, the White House, banks, consumers, mortgage lenders, mortgage loan officers, Barney Frank, everyone was enjoying living high off the hog and not thinking that hey this party is expensive, maybe it won't last forever.
Unfortunately we ended up with a hangover. Now President Obama and Congress are trying to reinflate the bubble with stimulus spending, because the natural contraction that we now as a recession slowed down the economy more than they like. The steeper the climb in housing, commodities, stock market, etc. the steeper the fall, we cannot avoid recessions entirely but trying to shorten them, may actually make this one longer. We are trying what Japan tried so far without much success, and because of government intervention their last recession lasted 10 years, they call it "the lost decade".
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
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